This is the final chapter in the forthcoming e-book which considers what will happen when the Saudi and Egyptian regimes fall and the West’s struggle against Jihad.

The Future of the Middle East

We are pleased to announce today the publication of the final chapter in our forthcoming new e-book ‘The Future of the Middle East’, co-produced by Global Policy and Arab Digest and edited by Hugh Miles and Alastair Newton.

Global Policy is an interdisciplinary peer reviewed journal and online platform which aims to bring together academics and practitioners to analyse public and private solutions to global issues. Established in 2010, Global Policy is based at Durham University and edited by David Held and Dani Rodrik.

We would like to thank again all the experts who so kindly contributed to this project and made it a success. The completed e-book will be published on October 23rd. We will provide more information about this closer to the time. Meanwhile all previous chapters are freely available here.

Insurance Technology, known as Insurtech, is a subset of financial technology (fintech) and is increasing, according to InsurTech Insider, a podcast by Deloitte (UK), the management consultant.

I listened to the first three episodes of the podcast, July August, September, which is produced monthly. I learnt a lot from the episodes I listened to. Go to https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/financial-services/articles/tune-in-insurtech-podcasts.html

The points I learned from the podcasts were:

(Episode 1)          

-       That it’s possible to buy car insurance by the hour, which means you can borrow a friend’s supercar.

Turkey is proving to be increasingly authoritarian. Another journalist, of dual Turkish and Finnish nationality, is convicted of terrorism charges. She is in New York.

Turkey has one of the worst records for detaining journalists. According to Reporters Without Borders (RSF), more than 100 journalists and media contributors are now in Turkish jails. “RSF has to date been able to establish a direct link between the arrest and the victim’s journalistic activities in 41 of these cases, and the organisation continues to verify others. President Erdogan’s increasing authoritarianism is being reflected in raids on media outlets that are designed to silence his critics,” the 2016 report states.

he report also shows that the number of detained professional journalists in Turkey has risen 22% after quadrupling in the wake of the failed coup d’état in July.

“Hundreds of Turkish journalist have been taken to court on charges of “insulting the president” or “terrorism.” Some have even been jailed without any charges brought against them. The number of cases of arbitrary imprisonment continues to rise.

“Aside from Turkey, the three other biggest jailers of journalists are China, Iran and Egypt. They alone account for more than two thirds of the world’s detained journalists.”

For a comprehensive assessment on what is happening in the media in the Middle East- online and traditional- check out this survey by Northwestern University in Qatar. The findings are enlightening, especially the differences between the Arab countries.

I’ve put the executive summary below. For those who want to read the report more fully go to http://www.mideastmedia.org/survey/2017/uploads/file/NUQ_Media_Use_2017_v18%20FINAL.pdf

Below are the key findings from this study, which are explored in detail in the chapters that follow.

Media Use by Platform

Compared to five years ago, internet penetration rose in all six countries surveyed and most dramatically in Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia.

Dubai has hit the headlines in the British papers again, and not for a good reason. It was reported that a British guy could be jailed for indecent behaviour for maybe three years. He was in Rock Bottom bar in Tecom (where I used to live) and brushed a Jordanian man on the hips, in a bid not to spill his drink.  The Jordanian man thought his behaviour was indecent. That’s how the incident has been reported by the British media. (See article in the Daily Mail below).

In other media, notably in Dubai, it was reported that the man was drunk so when the police arrived he was arrested.

Few people, apart from those ex-pats who live there, seem to realise that it is illegal to be caught drinking outside a licensed premises such as restaurant or club. That’s why people who live in the emirate get an alcohol license, which entails getting a signature from your employer that you are allowed to drink, among other things. I never got one.

Without a license you can be arrested for drinking at home, or even for having alcohol on the premises. So, if the police found this guy drunk, or even with alcohol in his system, he would be arrested. Indecency wouldn’t even need to be considered.

British father begs people not to visit Dubai

The stories about the horrific shootings in Las Vegas, Nevada, the United States, just keep on coming. Each day there is something new. And among the reports there appears to be no attempt by officialdom to change any legislation, the most obvious being to change the gun laws. Imagine if the shooter had have been a Muslim, and thereby automatically a terrorist. All sorts of legislation would have been enacted, including expanding the Muslim immigration ban. Now the government is faced with the fact that the biggest mass shooting in American history was perpetrated by a home-grown white, male American. An ordinary bloke and a "nice" guy. No need to change any laws since this tragedy could happen anytime, anywhere. it had nothing to do with terrorism. Only 59 people were shot dead.

This opinion piece that appeared in the New York Times by Thomas L Friedman sums up the tragedy well.

If only Stephen Paddock had been a Muslim … If only he had shouted “Allahu akbar” before he opened fire on all those concertgoers in Las Vegas … If only he had been a member of ISIS … If only we had a picture of him posing with a Quran in one hand and his semiautomatic rifle in another …

If all of that had happened, no one would be telling us not to dishonor the victims and “politicize” Paddock’s mass murder by talking about preventive remedies.

No, no, no. Then we know what we’d be doing. We’d be scheduling immediate hearings in Congress about the worst domestic terrorism event since 9/11. Then Donald Trump would be tweeting every hour “I told you so,” as he does minutes after every terror attack in Europe, precisely to immediately politicize them. Then there would be immediate calls for a commission of inquiry to see what new laws we need to put in place to make sure this doesn’t happen again. Then we’d be “weighing all options” against the country of origin.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS CONFERENCE HAS BEEN POSTPONED. DATE HAS STILL TO BE ARRANGED. COMMUNITY EVENT WILL BE ON 4 NOVEMBER AR SAME LOCATION. IT WILL BE IN AMHARIC ONLY.

Ethiopia is much more than adventure tourism and tourist sights. The politics and economics of the country are fascinating too. For example, some Ethiopians who come to New Zealand as refugees are from the same tribe as the ruling party, (the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front (TPLF)) and work as undercover spies, keeping tabs on Ethiopians in this country.

To keep abreast of these issues and as well as those regarding social media and telecommunications, which are prohibited in the country, a conference will be held in Auckland on October 27.

It is designed to create awareness among New Zealand officialdom of the issues affecting the Ethiopian community and allow it to share its concern with members of the local community.

The conference will be held between 9am and 11am at the University of Auckland, 74 Epsom Ave, Auckland, Room 6EA-201A.

I've covered a lot of private equity over the years, especially in the Middle East where I was based for 8.5 years. In New Zealand, the private equity market is dominated by a few companies and the country's sovereign wealth fund, NZ Super, has a key place in particular. It has performed well. Here are the latest results.

The NZ Super Fund has enjoyed one of its best annual performances yet, turning in a 20.7% (after costs, before NZ tax) return for the 12 months to 30 June 2017. It finished the year at $35 billion, up $5 billion on the year before.

Chair Catherine Savage said: "The Fund is generating world class returns and creating significant wealth for New Zealanders on a sustained basis. It should not, however, be measured on its short-term returns. We are here to create long-term value for New Zealand taxpayers.  The Fund has now returned 10.2% p.a., more than double the cost to the Government of contributing to it,*  over a period of nearly 14 years."

The 20.7% annual result reflects a sustained rally in global equity markets, and resulted in the Fund paying a record high $1.2 billion in New Zealand income tax for the financial year.

Ms Savage said the Fund's active investment strategies had performed strongly during the year, adding value of 4.4% ($1.3 billion) over the Fund's passive benchmark. "Over the long term we expect to beat the passive benchmark by 1% p.a., so this has been an excellent year."

There is a lot of excitement and talk about the lifting of the ban on women drivers in Saudi Arabia. Undeniably, it is a move in the right direction but there are a lot of changes that are needed, such as the guardianship rules. These rules mean that a woman must ask the permission of a father, a brother, or even a son, to travel, or even to work.

Also, the right for women to drive must be extended to a younger age group. Even under the new ruling, which comes into effect in June 2018 (plenty of opportunity to put more conditions in place), women under 30 are not allowed to drive, according to my friend in the port city of Jeddah.

My experience with drivers in Riyadh has not been good. It is possible for a woman to take a cab from the airport, which is driven by a man of course, and travel alone with the driver. I did it.

I also took a cab to an ATM in Riyadh, because I had to, even though it was within walking distance from the hotel.  A woman alone with an unknown male at night!

And Uber has lost its licence to operate in London, with one of the reasons cited as lack of security. In the UAE, and Iran for that matter, there are at least women taxi drivers.

The vote for Kurdistan’s, or Northern Iraq’s, independence has been fascinating. The Kurds are expecting a referendum result that overwhelmingly supports  independence- but whatever the outcome it’s unlikely that independence will be granted by the Iraqis, and Turkey, Iran and the US don’t won’t it. The Kurds might have spoken, as they have done in the past, but it makes little difference.

I spent  a few days recently with a Kurdish family in New Zealand- and they were totally passionate about Kurdish independence.

The Kurds are the largest majority in the Middle East who do not have an autonomous state; but countries are ready to use them to fight their cause. Recently,  the US armed the Kurds to fight ISIL. Will this change? These articles by the Brookings Institute in the US explains why.

Don’t underestimate Kurdistan’s resilience

By Ranj Alaaldin- Visiting Fellow - Brookings Doha Center

I've been following the Rohingya issue which is becoming increasingly complex. This time, rather than being Muslims versus the West, it is Muslims versus the Buddhists- a group we, in the West, had always been taught is tolerant and caring. Indeed, these are the reasons often cited for people transferring their religious preference from Christianity to Buddhism.

Therefore, I was keen to read this article by Lex Rieffel, non-resident senior fellow, Global Economy and Development, The Brookings Institute. Much of the world has condemned Aung San Suu Kyi, state counselor and leader of the National League for Democracy of Myanmar, for not speaking out about the Rohingya killings. Rieffel explains why.

Reporters on the scene are saying that 300,000 or more members of the Rohingya community (of Muslim faith) in Buddhist-majority Myanmar have fled across the border into Muslim-majority Bangladesh in the past two weeks. The refugees have been describing to reporters a litany of human rights abuses: homes burned, women raped, men beheaded, and more.

Editorial writers and columnists around the world have slammed Aung San Suu Kyi, state counselor and leader of the National League for Democracy of Myanmar, for allowing the atrocities to occur and have even demanded that the Nobel Committee withdraw the Peace Prize awarded to her in 1991.

As a scholar focusing on Myanmar for the past 10 years, during which I have visited the country more than a dozen times, I know how horrible the situation is. I have been to Rakhine state and have seen the Rohingya confined to a refugee camp on the outskirts of the state capital of Sittwe. At the same time, I believe that much of the media commentary is misdirected. It fails to describe the complex origins of the problem and explain how intractable it is.

As a former journalist in the Middle East and one that continues to check out what is happening to journalism in the region, the move towards mixing the media and foreign policy in a very clear way is disturbing. While it is not surprising for the media to be mixed up with politics, as this is always been the case, it is disturbing when one form of social media bans different opinions from its platform.

This is what the Wall Street Journal says about it.

Snapchat Removes Al Jazeera Channel in Saudi Arabia

Snap says it is complying with local law; Al Jazeera calls move an ‘attempt to silence freedom of expression’

Snap, trying to grow its popularity as a destination for news articles and videos, is encountering new questions around the potential for government censorship of that news on its social-media app.

Refugees are instrumental in running a hotel in Austria. Could a similar project be rolled out in New Zealand? Lucia Dore asks the CEO of Magdas Social Enterprise, Gabriela Sonnleitner, to explain how it operates.  

Magdas Hotel, in Vienna, Austria, is a hotel with a difference. Run by 20 former refugees and 11 hotel professionals, in co-operation with artists, architects and students, it aims to improve the lives of marginalised people, refugees in particular.

Sixteen countries are represented at the hotel and 26 languages are spoken. Training is done on the job and in special courses supported by professionals and volunteers.

The refugees have “regular work and that gives them security and stability in their lives. With their loan they have a secure income, can pay for a flat and other things and are no longer dependent on social welfare. They can live a self contained life,” says Magdas’ general manager, Gabriela Sonnleitner.

Even though the hotel is a social enterprise, based on the work of Nobel peace prizewinner, Muhammed Yunus, (who founded the Grameen Bank and pioneered the concepts of microcredit and microfinance) it is self-financing and all income is reinvested. It does not receive any public funding.

The deal between the New Zealand government and Saudi businessman Hmood Al Ali Al Khalaf has re-surfaced. After the report came out by the Auditor General Lyn Provost last November that there was no evidence of corruption- although there were "significant shortcomings"- it was probably assumed that the matter was all done and dusted. But it's election time so it's probably not surprising that the deal has resurfaced.

Refugees and other marginalised people often find it very hard to find work. But this is only one of the many obstacles that they  must overcome. The article below about an asylum seeker in New Zealand tells a story that is all too common. It will be published within a larger volume of research that is being undertaken with the Canterbury Refugee Resettlement and Resource Centre (CRRRC).

I was listening to a podcast today by Nader Kabbani, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and a senior fellow in Global Economy and Development. He provided a background on the Qatar-Gulf crisis, which has gone on for three months, and outlined its social, economic, and political implications.

He noted that Qatar has shifted its air and land routes, and although it can take longer to get from A to B the difference is not significant. Flying to Europe and Asia takes about 20 minutes longer, while to Africa it can take longer.

Saudi Arabia is attempting to diversify its economy so that it becomes less reliant on oil. Part of the plan includes an initial public offering (IPO) of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil company, valued at between about USD 8 billion and USD 10 billion.  It’s hoping to get more than that when the oil company goes public, reportedly about USD 2 trillion. But will this be achieved?

It appears that Saudi Arabia, and Saudi Aramco in particular, is scaling back its plans for diversification. It seems that it may not happen to the extent originally intended by 2020.

The world is full of terrible natural disasters, especially earthquakes and hurricanes. (Being based in New Zealand, we know all about earthquakes). So it’s a change to be discussing something frivolous such as handbags and shoes, even if they are fake.

 Living, and shopping in Dubai, it’s assumed that nearly everything you buy is fake. Handbags, though, were more readily available before, than now. Maybe that’s because of two reasons: the authorities have cracked down on fake items, imposing some hefty fines if sellers are caught; and more goods are put on social media. (Movements are afoot to impose fines on buyers too).

The problems across the Middle East just seem to get worse. How is it possible? When you're living in the region it's pretty clear that US foreign policy in particular, as well as the foreign policy of many of the European countries, including the UK and Germany, are much to blame, whether good or bad-- although foreign policy is generally bad.

This article that was published in Foreign Policy magazine back in June is enlightening. It explains why the problems are so intractable. One reason is expediency and stupidity; the other is the lack of force. Only force will bring about a solution, sort of, especially when it comes to the Israeli - Palestinian peace process. As I was told about five years ago when visiting both countries (I was attending a conference in Bethlehem) Israel will always be better off (territory wise) with the status quo than taking part in a negotiated settlement. This article appears to bear this out.

Anti-Muslim comments are becoming increasingly common all over the world. We have a great deal of anti-Muslim rhetoric from the US President, Donald Trump, who portrays all Muslims as terrorists; there is similar rhetoric emanating from the UK.

In New Zealand, we have a professor from Waikato University who, on Facebook, suggested that hiring Muslims was a poor move because of their prayer schedule. They pray five times a day, three of which are generally early in the morning and late at night.